Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 4?
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 交易量
$167,649 交易量
2026-05-04
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
Yes
28°C or higher 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$167,649 交易量
$167,649 交易量
2026-05-04
18°C or below
$986 交易量
No
19°C
$1,503 交易量
No
20°C
$1,175 交易量
No
21°C
$14,562 交易量
No
22°C
$20,456 交易量
No
23°C
$14,130 交易量
No
24°C
$13,136 交易量
No
25°C
$19,181 交易量
No
26°C
$22,838 交易量
No
27°C
$31,251 交易量
No
28°C or higher
$28,431 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$167,649結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$167,649結束日期
2026-05-04市場開放時間
May 2, 2026, 1:03 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) real-time observations from key Tokyo stations, including Haneda Airport—the market's resolution source—have already logged peak temperatures exceeding 28°C during mid-afternoon hours on May 4, driving trader consensus to a near-certain 100% implied probability for 28°C or higher. This unseasonably warm reading, well above the early May climatological average of 21–23°C, stems from a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly airflow amid Golden Week conditions, with minimal cloud cover enhancing solar heating. Model ensembles from JMA and global forecasts aligned with this outcome pre-event. Realistic challenges are slim post-peak: only a rare data revision from instrument calibration or urban heat island adjustment at official sites could alter it, pending JMA's final daily bulletin.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions