Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's maximum temperature on July 29 will likely fall in the 32–34°C range, driving the closely bunched market probabilities around 31–33°C. Variability stems from uncertainty in the strength and position of the North Pacific subtropical high, which controls southerly flow and urban heat retention, alongside potential weak frontal influences or cloud cover that could moderate peaks. Historical July climatology shows typical maxima near 31°C with a standard deviation of 2–3°C, underscoring why small shifts in model guidance or observational updates can reweight outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles for clearer signals on these steering patterns ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月29日東京氣溫最高？
7月29日東京氣溫最高？
34°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$95,006 交易量
$95,006 交易量
2026-07-29
27°C或以下
否
28°C
否
29°C
否
30°C
否
31°C
否
32°C
否
33°C
否
34°C
是
35°C
否
36°C
否
37°C或以上
否
34°C 100.0%
27°C或以下 <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$95,006 交易量
$95,006 交易量
2026-07-29
27°C或以下
$2,886 交易量
否
28°C
$1,734 交易量
否
29°C
$3,322 交易量
否
30°C
$3,003 交易量
否
31°C
$7,120 交易量
否
32°C
$4,599 交易量
否
33°C
$6,665 交易量
否
34°C
$28,483 交易量
是
35°C
$15,168 交易量
否
36°C
$12,396 交易量
否
37°C或以上
$9,630 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's maximum temperature on July 29 will likely fall in the 32–34°C range, driving the closely bunched market probabilities around 31–33°C. Variability stems from uncertainty in the strength and position of the North Pacific subtropical high, which controls southerly flow and urban heat retention, alongside potential weak frontal influences or cloud cover that could moderate peaks. Historical July climatology shows typical maxima near 31°C with a standard deviation of 2–3°C, underscoring why small shifts in model guidance or observational updates can reweight outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles for clearer signals on these steering patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET
交易量
$95,006結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's maximum temperature on July 29 will likely fall in the 32–34°C range, driving the closely bunched market probabilities around 31–33°C. Variability stems from uncertainty in the strength and position of the North Pacific subtropical high, which controls southerly flow and urban heat retention, alongside potential weak frontal influences or cloud cover that could moderate peaks. Historical July climatology shows typical maxima near 31°C with a standard deviation of 2–3°C, underscoring why small shifts in model guidance or observational updates can reweight outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles for clearer signals on these steering patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$95,006結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Jul 27, 2026, 4:04 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Latest ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's maximum temperature on July 29 will likely fall in the 32–34°C range, driving the closely bunched market probabilities around 31–33°C. Variability stems from uncertainty in the strength and position of the North Pacific subtropical high, which controls southerly flow and urban heat retention, alongside potential weak frontal influences or cloud cover that could moderate peaks. Historical July climatology shows typical maxima near 31°C with a standard deviation of 2–3°C, underscoring why small shifts in model guidance or observational updates can reweight outcomes. Traders are monitoring the next model cycles for clearer signals on these steering patterns ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions