Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models position overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C for August 4, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 23°C (50.5% implied probability) and 22°C (31.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan this summer, driven by persistent high pressure and reduced typhoon activity, support these values while limiting downside risk to 21°C or below. Urban heat-island effects and typical August humidity further stabilize minima near historical baselines of 23.9°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, including JMA guidance on any frontal passages or cloud cover, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日東京最低溫度？
8月4日東京最低溫度？
23°C 51%
22°C 32%
24°C 9%
25°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
17°C或以下
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
32%
23°C
51%
24°C
9%
25°C
5%
26°C
2%
27°C或以上
1%
23°C 51%
22°C 32%
24°C 9%
25°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
17°C或以下
$119 交易量
<1%
18°C
$131 交易量
2%
19°C
$89 交易量
1%
20°C
$102 交易量
4%
21°C
$112 交易量
4%
22°C
$107 交易量
32%
23°C
$142 交易量
51%
24°C
$104 交易量
9%
25°C
$120 交易量
5%
26°C
$78 交易量
2%
27°C或以上
$405 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models position overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C for August 4, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 23°C (50.5% implied probability) and 22°C (31.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan this summer, driven by persistent high pressure and reduced typhoon activity, support these values while limiting downside risk to 21°C or below. Urban heat-island effects and typical August humidity further stabilize minima near historical baselines of 23.9°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, including JMA guidance on any frontal passages or cloud cover, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,509結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models position overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C for August 4, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 23°C (50.5% implied probability) and 22°C (31.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan this summer, driven by persistent high pressure and reduced typhoon activity, support these values while limiting downside risk to 21°C or below. Urban heat-island effects and typical August humidity further stabilize minima near historical baselines of 23.9°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, including JMA guidance on any frontal passages or cloud cover, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,509結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models position overnight lows in Tokyo near 23–24°C for August 4, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes of 23°C (50.5% implied probability) and 22°C (31.5%). Above-normal seasonal temperatures expected across Japan this summer, driven by persistent high pressure and reduced typhoon activity, support these values while limiting downside risk to 21°C or below. Urban heat-island effects and typical August humidity further stabilize minima near historical baselines of 23.9°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours, including JMA guidance on any frontal passages or cloud cover, will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions