Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月4日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
28°C或以下 28%
31°C 27%
30°C 27%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
28%
29°C
16%
30°C
27%
31°C
27%
32°C
6%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C
1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或以上
<1%
28°C或以下 28%
31°C 27%
30°C 27%
29°C 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
$363 交易量
28%
29°C
$137 交易量
16%
30°C
$148 交易量
27%
31°C
$583 交易量
27%
32°C
$155 交易量
6%
33°C
$56 交易量
2%
34°C
$179 交易量
1%
35°C
$153 交易量
1%
36°C
$143 交易量
<1%
37°C
$133 交易量
<1%
38°C或以上
$133 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$2,182結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,182結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent short-range ensemble guidance from ECMWF and regional models shows spread in peak temperatures for Amsterdam on August 4, with most solutions clustered near 28–30°C amid variable cloud cover and a moderating North Sea breeze. This uncertainty explains why market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28°C or below (34.5%) and 30°C (27.5%), with lower probabilities for 29°C or warmer outcomes. Coastal location and potential for onshore flow limit extremes relative to inland areas, while any clearing under high pressure could push readings slightly higher. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions