Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like China's National Meteorological Center points to a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Guangzhou on August 4, driven by typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and afternoon convective activity that can cap daytime highs through cloud cover and scattered showers. Market-implied odds favor 33°C at 34.5% as traders weigh historical August averages around 33°C against the moderating effects of potential rainfall or weak frontal influences, while lower probabilities for 34°C or above reflect limited intensification potential this close to the date. Key variables include steering patterns and instability indices that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official station readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日廣州最高溫度？
8月4日廣州最高溫度？
33°C 34%
32°C 30%
31°C 21%
34°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
26°C或以下
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
21%
32°C
30%
33°C
34%
34°C
15%
35°C
2%
36°C或以上
2%
33°C 34%
32°C 30%
31°C 21%
34°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
26°C或以下
$343 交易量
<1%
27°C
$20 交易量
<1%
28°C
$428 交易量
1%
29°C
$29 交易量
2%
30°C
$0 交易量
5%
31°C
$18 交易量
21%
32°C
$13 交易量
30%
33°C
$153 交易量
34%
34°C
$48 交易量
15%
35°C
$57 交易量
2%
36°C或以上
$25 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like China's National Meteorological Center points to a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Guangzhou on August 4, driven by typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and afternoon convective activity that can cap daytime highs through cloud cover and scattered showers. Market-implied odds favor 33°C at 34.5% as traders weigh historical August averages around 33°C against the moderating effects of potential rainfall or weak frontal influences, while lower probabilities for 34°C or above reflect limited intensification potential this close to the date. Key variables include steering patterns and instability indices that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$1,134結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from agencies like China's National Meteorological Center points to a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Guangzhou on August 4, driven by typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and afternoon convective activity that can cap daytime highs through cloud cover and scattered showers. Market-implied odds favor 33°C at 34.5% as traders weigh historical August averages around 33°C against the moderating effects of potential rainfall or weak frontal influences, while lower probabilities for 34°C or above reflect limited intensification potential this close to the date. Key variables include steering patterns and instability indices that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,134結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent forecast model consensus from agencies like China's National Meteorological Center points to a peak temperature near 32–33°C in Guangzhou on August 4, driven by typical subtropical monsoon conditions with high humidity and afternoon convective activity that can cap daytime highs through cloud cover and scattered showers. Market-implied odds favor 33°C at 34.5% as traders weigh historical August averages around 33°C against the moderating effects of potential rainfall or weak frontal influences, while lower probabilities for 34°C or above reflect limited intensification potential this close to the date. Key variables include steering patterns and instability indices that could shift outcomes by 1–2°C; updated runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria based on official station readings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions