Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across Shenzhen have capped daytime heating, anchoring trader consensus around 29–31°C for the August 4 maximum as short-range models show only modest clearing. Subtropical monsoon flow from the South China Sea supplies high humidity and scattered thunderstorms that limit insolation, while urban heat-island effects and weak steering winds keep the diurnal range narrow. Ensemble guidance exhibits small spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering between 29°C and 31°C; any shift in convective timing or low-level wind direction could tip the daily peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日深圳最高溫度？
8月4日深圳最高溫度？
31°C 32%
29°C 30%
32°C 23%
30°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
30%
30°C
14%
31°C
32%
32°C
23%
33°C
4%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 32%
29°C 30%
32°C 23%
30°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
25°C or below
$62 交易量
<1%
26°C
$164 交易量
3%
27°C
$301 交易量
2%
28°C
$68 交易量
5%
29°C
$291 交易量
30%
30°C
$79 交易量
14%
31°C
$50 交易量
32%
32°C
$55 交易量
23%
33°C
$41 交易量
4%
34°C
$239 交易量
1%
35°C or higher
$174 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across Shenzhen have capped daytime heating, anchoring trader consensus around 29–31°C for the August 4 maximum as short-range models show only modest clearing. Subtropical monsoon flow from the South China Sea supplies high humidity and scattered thunderstorms that limit insolation, while urban heat-island effects and weak steering winds keep the diurnal range narrow. Ensemble guidance exhibits small spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering between 29°C and 31°C; any shift in convective timing or low-level wind direction could tip the daily peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$1,525結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across Shenzhen have capped daytime heating, anchoring trader consensus around 29–31°C for the August 4 maximum as short-range models show only modest clearing. Subtropical monsoon flow from the South China Sea supplies high humidity and scattered thunderstorms that limit insolation, while urban heat-island effects and weak steering winds keep the diurnal range narrow. Ensemble guidance exhibits small spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering between 29°C and 31°C; any shift in convective timing or low-level wind direction could tip the daily peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,525結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:04 AM ETRecent heavy rainfall and persistent cloud cover across Shenzhen have capped daytime heating, anchoring trader consensus around 29–31°C for the August 4 maximum as short-range models show only modest clearing. Subtropical monsoon flow from the South China Sea supplies high humidity and scattered thunderstorms that limit insolation, while urban heat-island effects and weak steering winds keep the diurnal range narrow. Ensemble guidance exhibits small spread in 850-hPa temperatures and boundary-layer moisture, producing the tight clustering between 29°C and 31°C; any shift in convective timing or low-level wind direction could tip the daily peak by 1–2°C. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions