Recent model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration highlight typical August peak-summer conditions in Chengdu, with afternoon highs shaped by high humidity, scattered monsoon showers, and variable cloud cover that can suppress or allow temperatures to climb. Ensemble forecasts show the daily maximum likely falling between 31–34 °C on August 4, producing closely matched market probabilities as small differences in timing of convective activity or regional pressure gradients can shift the peak by a degree or two. Historical climatology places early-August averages near 32 °C, while occasional clear spells have permitted brief excursions above 35 °C; updated short-range guidance expected in the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds and likely tighten trader positioning ahead of resolution.