Recent KMA and global model runs point to peak daytime highs of 32–34°C across the Seoul-Incheon area on August 3, driven by a weakening East Asian monsoon ridge, light winds, and high boundary-layer humidity that limits nocturnal cooling while allowing strong solar heating under mostly cloudy skies. Coastal Incheon observations often run 1–2°C cooler than inland Seoul due to sea-breeze effects, creating tight uncertainty around the exact daily maximum. Ensemble spread remains modest but widens with any late timing of cloud breaks or isolated showers, which could shave 1°C off the peak or allow brief excursions above 35°C. Historical early-August climatology centers near 31°C, so current guidance reflects a modest positive anomaly consistent with the market’s near-even split between the 33°C and 34°C outcomes.