Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 8?
26°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$119,320 交易量
$119,320 交易量
2026-05-08
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$119,320 交易量
$119,320 交易量
2026-05-08
17°C or below
$5,569 交易量
No
18°C
$2,576 交易量
No
19°C
$1,937 交易量
No
20°C
$5,692 交易量
No
21°C
$6,226 交易量
No
22°C
$19,345 交易量
No
23°C
$16,315 交易量
No
24°C
$12,289 交易量
No
25°C
$8,518 交易量
No
26°C
$21,604 交易量
Yes
27°C or higher
$19,249 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
交易量
$119,320結束日期
2026-05-08市場開放時間
May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$119,320結束日期
2026-05-08市場開放時間
May 6, 2026, 12:31 AM ET已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts drive the 100% market-implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature on May 8 at 26°C, with the latest update—issued today—projecting a daily maximum near 25°C under cloudy skies clearing later, aligning with observed peaks from hourly AMeDAS stations and consistent model ensembles showing limited intensification potential. Above-normal May conditions (daily normal 22.8°C) reflect lingering warm air masses, but partial cloud cover caps solar heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected full clearing or downslope winds boosting afternoon temps to 27°C+, though low-altitude moisture and steering patterns make this unlikely; final JMA observations expected by evening will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions