The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$58,254 交易量
$58,254 交易量
2026-04-30
是
$58,254 交易量
$58,254 交易量
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
交易量
$58,254結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$58,254結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
The April 30 deadline elapsed without any declaration of independence from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), solidifying trader consensus at 100% probability for "No" as no official announcements emerged from KRG leadership, parliament, or federal institutions. Recent political deadlock has stalled government formation in the Kurdistan Region, leaving it exposed amid over 800 Iranian drone and missile attacks since late February, while KRG statements reaffirm commitment to Iraq's federal sovereignty, stability, and good neighborly relations. Absent international support and facing Baghdad's historical opposition—evident since the 2017 referendum backlash—independence remains untenable. Realistic shifts would require verifiable late-breaking KRG action, though primary sources confirm none occurred.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions