Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$3結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 80% against any country expelling a U.S. ambassador by year-end reflects the rarity of such drastic diplomatic actions, typically reserved for espionage or severe bilateral breakdowns, with no verified instances in 2026 despite rhetorical tensions. In March, South Africa's EFF demanded expulsion of U.S. Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III over critical remarks on foreign policy, prompting a formal summons by Pretoria, but officials stopped short of declaring him persona non grata. France similarly summoned its U.S. envoy in February amid a spat over domestic comments, imposing temporary access restrictions without escalation. Absent major catalysts like intensified sanctions, military actions, or alliance fractures in hotspots such as Russia or the Middle East, traders see low risk through December 31, though unforeseen diplomatic ruptures could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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