Israel's airstrikes in Syria on April 18 targeting Iranian-linked sites, cross-border actions in Lebanon against Hezbollah amid daily exchanges, and the limited April 19 drone strike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan have confirmed attacks in three countries this month, driving trader consensus to cluster tightly around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) outcomes. This reflects calibrated escalation following Iran's April 13 missile barrage, with routine Syria-Lebanon operations as baseline while the Isfahan response—described by officials as precise and non-escalatory—avoids broader conflict. Ongoing Houthi attacks from Yemen on shipping raise risks of Israeli retaliation before April ends, potentially tipping to ≥4, while diplomatic de-escalation signals or restraint could cap at two or three; no major developments in the past 48 hours have separated the pack.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 11%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
11%
2
42%
3
43%
≥4
41%
3 43%
≥4 41%
≤1 11%
2 0
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
≤1
$0 交易量
11%
2
$1 交易量
42%
3
$0 交易量
43%
≥4
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes in Syria on April 18 targeting Iranian-linked sites, cross-border actions in Lebanon against Hezbollah amid daily exchanges, and the limited April 19 drone strike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan have confirmed attacks in three countries this month, driving trader consensus to cluster tightly around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) outcomes. This reflects calibrated escalation following Iran's April 13 missile barrage, with routine Syria-Lebanon operations as baseline while the Isfahan response—described by officials as precise and non-escalatory—avoids broader conflict. Ongoing Houthi attacks from Yemen on shipping raise risks of Israeli retaliation before April ends, potentially tipping to ≥4, while diplomatic de-escalation signals or restraint could cap at two or three; no major developments in the past 48 hours have separated the pack.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
交易量
$1結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's airstrikes in Syria on April 18 targeting Iranian-linked sites, cross-border actions in Lebanon against Hezbollah amid daily exchanges, and the limited April 19 drone strike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan have confirmed attacks in three countries this month, driving trader consensus to cluster tightly around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) outcomes. This reflects calibrated escalation following Iran's April 13 missile barrage, with routine Syria-Lebanon operations as baseline while the Isfahan response—described by officials as precise and non-escalatory—avoids broader conflict. Ongoing Houthi attacks from Yemen on shipping raise risks of Israeli retaliation before April ends, potentially tipping to ≥4, while diplomatic de-escalation signals or restraint could cap at two or three; no major developments in the past 48 hours have separated the pack.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israel's airstrikes in Syria on April 18 targeting Iranian-linked sites, cross-border actions in Lebanon against Hezbollah amid daily exchanges, and the limited April 19 drone strike on an Iranian airbase near Isfahan have confirmed attacks in three countries this month, driving trader consensus to cluster tightly around 2 (42%), 3 (42%), and ≥4 (41%) outcomes. This reflects calibrated escalation following Iran's April 13 missile barrage, with routine Syria-Lebanon operations as baseline while the Isfahan response—described by officials as precise and non-escalatory—avoids broader conflict. Ongoing Houthi attacks from Yemen on shipping raise risks of Israeli retaliation before April ends, potentially tipping to ≥4, while diplomatic de-escalation signals or restraint could cap at two or three; no major developments in the past 48 hours have separated the pack.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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