Skip to main content
icon for 美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？
世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

icon for 美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？
世界·特朗普總統任期

美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？

12月 31

12月 31

$7,743,204 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$7,743,204 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$770,570 交易量

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military operations between the United States and Iran since February 2026, including airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury and responses over Strait of Hormuz navigation, have proceeded without congressional authorization for formal war. A June memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan and Qatar established a framework for ceasefires, sanctions measures, and nuclear talks, though exchanges of strikes resumed in July amid shipping incidents. Recent statements from President Trump indicate pauses in new attacks pending rapid diplomatic progress on Iran's nuclear program and maritime access. These developments highlight executive branch flexibility under existing authorities, competing priorities around de-escalation, and structural requirements for any formal declaration, shaping trader assessments of resolution pathways within specified timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,743,204
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing military operations between the United States and Iran since February 2026, including airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury and responses over Strait of Hormuz navigation, have proceeded without congressional authorization for formal war. A June memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan and Qatar established a framework for ceasefires, sanctions measures, and nuclear talks, though exchanges of strikes resumed in July amid shipping incidents. Recent statements from President Trump indicate pauses in new attacks pending rapid diplomatic progress on Iran's nuclear program and maritime access. These developments highlight executive branch flexibility under existing authorities, competing priorities around de-escalation, and structural requirements for any formal declaration, shaping trader assessments of resolution pathways within specified timelines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.

The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,743,204
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

相關

icon for Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

13%
icon for 伊朗同意在12月31日前停止鈾濃縮活動？

伊朗同意在12月31日前停止鈾濃縮活動？

27%
是
icon for 伊朗同意在9月30日前停止濃縮鈾嗎？

伊朗同意在9月30日前停止濃縮鈾嗎？

10%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 5%, followed by "3月31日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 5¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 5% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" has generated $7.7 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" is "12月31日" at just 5%, with "3月31日" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國會在…前正式向伊朗宣戰嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.