Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, including recent postponement of planned US strikes, have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war. Following the 2026 conflict's escalation over the Strait of Hormuz in July, President Trump announced on August 2 he would hold off on fresh attacks subject to rapid agreement on reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program. Iran has warned of retaliation while mediators pursue de-escalation. No congressional declaration has occurred despite sustained military operations since February, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct strikes without formal war authorization. Key upcoming factors include the pace of talks on sanctions relief and nuclear issues, plus any new incidents in the region.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,743,204 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
5%
$7,743,204 交易量
12月31日
$770,570 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, including recent postponement of planned US strikes, have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war. Following the 2026 conflict's escalation over the Strait of Hormuz in July, President Trump announced on August 2 he would hold off on fresh attacks subject to rapid agreement on reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program. Iran has warned of retaliation while mediators pursue de-escalation. No congressional declaration has occurred despite sustained military operations since February, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct strikes without formal war authorization. Key upcoming factors include the pace of talks on sanctions relief and nuclear issues, plus any new incidents in the region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
交易量
$7,743,204結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, including recent postponement of planned US strikes, have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war. Following the 2026 conflict's escalation over the Strait of Hormuz in July, President Trump announced on August 2 he would hold off on fresh attacks subject to rapid agreement on reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program. Iran has warned of retaliation while mediators pursue de-escalation. No congressional declaration has occurred despite sustained military operations since February, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct strikes without formal war authorization. Key upcoming factors include the pace of talks on sanctions relief and nuclear issues, plus any new incidents in the region.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,743,204結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran, including recent postponement of planned US strikes, have shaped trader views on the low likelihood of a formal congressional declaration of war. Following the 2026 conflict's escalation over the Strait of Hormuz in July, President Trump announced on August 2 he would hold off on fresh attacks subject to rapid agreement on reopening the strait and curbing Iran's nuclear program. Iran has warned of retaliation while mediators pursue de-escalation. No congressional declaration has occurred despite sustained military operations since February, consistent with historical patterns where presidents conduct strikes without formal war authorization. Key upcoming factors include the pace of talks on sanctions relief and nuclear issues, plus any new incidents in the region.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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