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icon for 2027年之前的伊朗核武器？
政治·伊朗

2027年之前的伊朗核武器？

icon for 2027年之前的伊朗核武器？
政治·伊朗

2027年之前的伊朗核武器？

12月 31

12月 31

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$926,833 交易量

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$926,833 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely disrupting centrifuge operations and rendering much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated in March 2026 testimony that enrichment has not resumed, aligning with IAEA reports of limited inspector access since mid-2025 and intelligence estimates extending Iran's weaponization timeline to at least nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations include Iranian proposals to pause enrichment and address stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 92% "No" odds. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected parallel efforts could still shift probabilities before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$926,833
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely disrupting centrifuge operations and rendering much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard stated in March 2026 testimony that enrichment has not resumed, aligning with IAEA reports of limited inspector access since mid-2025 and intelligence estimates extending Iran's weaponization timeline to at least nine to twelve months or longer. Ongoing ceasefire negotiations include Iranian proposals to pause enrichment and address stockpiles in exchange for sanctions relief, reinforcing trader consensus reflected in the 92% "No" odds. Late diplomatic breakdowns or undetected parallel efforts could still shift probabilities before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$926,833
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前的伊朗核武器？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "伊朗在2027年前擁有核武？" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前的伊朗核武器？" has generated $926.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前的伊朗核武器？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2027年之前的伊朗核武器？" is "伊朗在2027年前擁有核武？" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前的伊朗核武器？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.