**Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 significantly degraded Iran's enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or damaging key facilities and leaving substantial highly enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried.** IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access since mid-2025, preventing verification of current activities or material inventories, while US intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment as of March 2026. Ongoing bilateral talks address potential pauses in enrichment, stockpile management, and sanctions relief, with proposals focusing on extended enrichment limits rather than weaponization. These developments, alongside Iran's incomplete weaponization capabilities and extended technical timelines for rebuilding cascades and producing weapons-grade material, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device is improbable before 2027. Late diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected recovery efforts remain the main variables that could alter this outlook.