Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization infrastructure, while prompting IAEA inspectors to withdraw and leaving large portions of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. Official statements from both U.S. and Iranian officials confirm no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities through mid-2026, reinforced by a June memorandum reaffirming Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. These setbacks have extended estimated timelines for producing testable material well beyond 2026 according to U.S. assessments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test by December 31, 2026, reflects this degraded capacity and absence of detectable acceleration. Shifts remain possible if Iran recovers stockpiles undetected, accelerates rebuilding at hardened sites, or alters policy amid renewed escalation or collapsed negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization infrastructure, while prompting IAEA inspectors to withdraw and leaving large portions of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. Official statements from both U.S. and Iranian officials confirm no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities through mid-2026, reinforced by a June memorandum reaffirming Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. These setbacks have extended estimated timelines for producing testable material well beyond 2026 according to U.S. assessments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test by December 31, 2026, reflects this degraded capacity and absence of detectable acceleration. Shifts remain possible if Iran recovers stockpiles undetected, accelerates rebuilding at hardened sites, or alters policy amid renewed escalation or collapsed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,407結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization infrastructure, while prompting IAEA inspectors to withdraw and leaving large portions of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. Official statements from both U.S. and Iranian officials confirm no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities through mid-2026, reinforced by a June memorandum reaffirming Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. These setbacks have extended estimated timelines for producing testable material well beyond 2026 according to U.S. assessments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test by December 31, 2026, reflects this degraded capacity and absence of detectable acceleration. Shifts remain possible if Iran recovers stockpiles undetected, accelerates rebuilding at hardened sites, or alters policy amid renewed escalation or collapsed negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,407結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with related weaponization infrastructure, while prompting IAEA inspectors to withdraw and leaving large portions of the highly enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible under rubble. Official statements from both U.S. and Iranian officials confirm no resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities through mid-2026, reinforced by a June memorandum reaffirming Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. These setbacks have extended estimated timelines for producing testable material well beyond 2026 according to U.S. assessments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test by December 31, 2026, reflects this degraded capacity and absence of detectable acceleration. Shifts remain possible if Iran recovers stockpiles undetected, accelerates rebuilding at hardened sites, or alters policy amid renewed escalation or collapsed negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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