Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$246,408 交易量
$246,408 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$246,408 交易量
$246,408 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,408結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,408結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities including Natanz, causing confirmed damage and limiting enrichment capacity, while a bilateral memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development. IAEA reports through mid-2026 note restricted access and no verified weaponization activities or major program resumption, with enriched uranium stockpiles largely inaccessible or unrecovered per Iranian statements. These verified setbacks, combined with sustained sanctions, diplomatic scrutiny, and monitoring, underpin trader consensus on low near-term test probability. Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction at remaining sites or escalatory policy reversals before year-end, though structural barriers and verification gaps constrain such outcomes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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