Iran maintains a sophisticated nuclear enrichment program under IAEA monitoring, yet has consistently avoided a full-scale nuclear test amid sustained international sanctions, U.S. and Israeli deterrence signals, and diplomatic constraints that have shaped its threshold strategy for years. Traders price the low probability of a test before 2027 on this established pattern of restraint, reinforced by ongoing verification regimes and the severe escalation risks any detonation would trigger with regional adversaries. Near-term catalysts such as renewed negotiations, shifts in enrichment levels, or major security incidents could still alter timelines, though structural barriers including verification access and retaliation concerns continue to support the current consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
是
5% 機率
$246,407 交易量
$246,407 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains a sophisticated nuclear enrichment program under IAEA monitoring, yet has consistently avoided a full-scale nuclear test amid sustained international sanctions, U.S. and Israeli deterrence signals, and diplomatic constraints that have shaped its threshold strategy for years. Traders price the low probability of a test before 2027 on this established pattern of restraint, reinforced by ongoing verification regimes and the severe escalation risks any detonation would trigger with regional adversaries. Near-term catalysts such as renewed negotiations, shifts in enrichment levels, or major security incidents could still alter timelines, though structural barriers including verification access and retaliation concerns continue to support the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
交易量
$246,407結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains a sophisticated nuclear enrichment program under IAEA monitoring, yet has consistently avoided a full-scale nuclear test amid sustained international sanctions, U.S. and Israeli deterrence signals, and diplomatic constraints that have shaped its threshold strategy for years. Traders price the low probability of a test before 2027 on this established pattern of restraint, reinforced by ongoing verification regimes and the severe escalation risks any detonation would trigger with regional adversaries. Near-term catalysts such as renewed negotiations, shifts in enrichment levels, or major security incidents could still alter timelines, though structural barriers including verification access and retaliation concerns continue to support the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$246,407結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains a sophisticated nuclear enrichment program under IAEA monitoring, yet has consistently avoided a full-scale nuclear test amid sustained international sanctions, U.S. and Israeli deterrence signals, and diplomatic constraints that have shaped its threshold strategy for years. Traders price the low probability of a test before 2027 on this established pattern of restraint, reinforced by ongoing verification regimes and the severe escalation risks any detonation would trigger with regional adversaries. Near-term catalysts such as renewed negotiations, shifts in enrichment levels, or major security incidents could still alter timelines, though structural barriers including verification access and retaliation concerns continue to support the current consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions