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icon for 哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？
地緣政治·敘利亞

哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？

icon for 哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？
地緣政治·敘利亞

哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

$758,935 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$758,935 交易量

Polymarket
icon for 沙烏地阿拉伯

沙烏地阿拉伯

$66,378 交易量

11%

icon for 黎巴嫩

黎巴嫩

$114,340 交易量

10%

icon for 委內瑞拉

委內瑞拉

$357,829 交易量

10%

icon for 印尼

印尼

$18,106 交易量

8%

icon for 突尼西亞

突尼西亞

$12,427 交易量

7%

icon for 科威特

科威特

$16,910 交易量

7%

icon for 伊拉克

伊拉克

$13,477 交易量

6%

icon for 卡塔爾

卡塔爾

$36,093 交易量

5%

icon for 敘利亞

敘利亞

$21,328 交易量

5%

icon for 巴基斯坦

巴基斯坦

$9,739 交易量

5%

icon for 朝鮮

朝鮮

$20,230 交易量

4%

icon for 古巴

古巴

$9,417 交易量

4%

icon for 伊朗

伊朗

$16,242 交易量

4%

icon for 孟加拉

孟加拉

$13,111 交易量

4%

icon for 馬來西亞

馬來西亞

$12,668 交易量

4%

icon for 阿富汗

阿富汗

$20,641 交易量

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to new Israeli recognitions by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled normalization momentum. The Gaza conflict and Palestinian statehood demands continue to condition potential deals with Arab and Muslim-majority states such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Syria, where security talks or US-brokered incentives have not yet produced formal recognition. Venezuela leads implied probabilities amid possible policy shifts, while Lebanon, Tunisia, and Kuwait trail due to domestic and regional constraints. Most UN members already recognize Israel, and recent restorations of ties by Bolivia and Colombia have not extended to non-recognizers. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or third-party pressure before year-end, additional formal recognitions remain limited.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$758,935
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to new Israeli recognitions by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled normalization momentum. The Gaza conflict and Palestinian statehood demands continue to condition potential deals with Arab and Muslim-majority states such as Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Syria, where security talks or US-brokered incentives have not yet produced formal recognition. Venezuela leads implied probabilities amid possible policy shifts, while Lebanon, Tunisia, and Kuwait trail due to domestic and regional constraints. Most UN members already recognize Israel, and recent restorations of ties by Bolivia and Colombia have not extended to non-recognizers. Absent major diplomatic breakthroughs or third-party pressure before year-end, additional formal recognitions remain limited.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$758,935
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "沙烏地阿拉伯" at 11%, followed by "黎巴嫩" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？" has generated $758.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？" is "沙烏地阿拉伯" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "黎巴嫩" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪些國家會在12月31日前承認以色列？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.