Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes established institutional continuity through the Assembly of Experts and IRGC backing, yet he has maintained a low profile with no confirmed live public appearances. Security concerns, reported injuries from the attack, and ongoing regional tensions explain the extended absence, with trader consensus assigning low probabilities to near-term dates such as August 31. Iranian state media released a short undated video in early August 2026 showing him in a meeting, released to counter health speculation, though its timing and status as new footage remain factors for market resolution. Scheduled interactions with President Pezeshkian and potential further media or official events through year-end represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$6,628,169 交易量
8月31日
7%
9月30日
13%
12月31日
28%
$6,628,169 交易量
8月31日
7%
9月30日
13%
12月31日
28%
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
市場開放時間: Jun 23, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 after his father's death in U.S.-Israeli strikes established institutional continuity through the Assembly of Experts and IRGC backing, yet he has maintained a low profile with no confirmed live public appearances. Security concerns, reported injuries from the attack, and ongoing regional tensions explain the extended absence, with trader consensus assigning low probabilities to near-term dates such as August 31. Iranian state media released a short undated video in early August 2026 showing him in a meeting, released to counter health speculation, though its timing and status as new footage remain factors for market resolution. Scheduled interactions with President Pezeshkian and potential further media or official events through year-end represent the main variables that could shift implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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