Iran's enriched uranium stockpile surged 50% to a record 6,641 kg by early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, including 183 kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity, breaching JCPOA limits amid ongoing non-cooperation with inspectors. No diplomatic progress toward stockpile surrender has occurred; indirect US-Iran talks via Oman stalled in spring 2024, and recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October escalated tensions without prompting concessions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of proliferation risks last week, while Iran's parliament advances a bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Traders eye incoming US administration signals on sanctions, potential UN Security Council referrals, and next IAEA verification report in January 2025 as key catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
$24,004 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
10%
June 30
17%
December 31
30%
$24,004 交易量
April 30
$1,864 交易量
10%
June 30
$1,083 交易量
17%
December 31
$21,058 交易量
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile surged 50% to a record 6,641 kg by early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, including 183 kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity, breaching JCPOA limits amid ongoing non-cooperation with inspectors. No diplomatic progress toward stockpile surrender has occurred; indirect US-Iran talks via Oman stalled in spring 2024, and recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October escalated tensions without prompting concessions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of proliferation risks last week, while Iran's parliament advances a bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Traders eye incoming US administration signals on sanctions, potential UN Security Council referrals, and next IAEA verification report in January 2025 as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
交易量
$24,004結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile surged 50% to a record 6,641 kg by early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, including 183 kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity, breaching JCPOA limits amid ongoing non-cooperation with inspectors. No diplomatic progress toward stockpile surrender has occurred; indirect US-Iran talks via Oman stalled in spring 2024, and recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October escalated tensions without prompting concessions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of proliferation risks last week, while Iran's parliament advances a bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Traders eye incoming US administration signals on sanctions, potential UN Security Council referrals, and next IAEA verification report in January 2025 as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$24,004結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile surged 50% to a record 6,641 kg by early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, including 183 kg at near-weapons-grade 60% purity, breaching JCPOA limits amid ongoing non-cooperation with inspectors. No diplomatic progress toward stockpile surrender has occurred; indirect US-Iran talks via Oman stalled in spring 2024, and recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian facilities in October escalated tensions without prompting concessions. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned of proliferation risks last week, while Iran's parliament advances a bill to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Traders eye incoming US administration signals on sanctions, potential UN Security Council referrals, and next IAEA verification report in January 2025 as key catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions