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地緣政治·特朗普

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$330 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$246 交易量

26%

4月30日

$84 交易量

36%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government.

A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$330
結束日期
Apr 30, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 6:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance talks with at least one Iranian negotiator by the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Qualifying Iranian negotiators are representatives of Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their government. A talk is defined as any interaction between JD Vance and an Iranian negotiator, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

JD Vance has made no public statements or announcements indicating plans to engage Iranian negotiators, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities for such direct talks by the specified date. As vice president-elect, Vance's early focus remains on domestic transition priorities amid the incoming Trump administration's emphasis on confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions and proxy activities rather than dialogue, consistent with Republican foreign policy hawks. Recent developments, including Israel's October airstrikes on Iranian targets and Trump's post-election vows for "maximum pressure," further diminish prospects for U.S.-Iran engagement. Traders watch for cabinet confirmations and January 20 inauguration, though no scheduled diplomacy involving Vance appears on the horizon.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 36%, followed by "3月31日" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" is "4月30日" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月31日" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.