Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward Pakistan (29.5%) as the venue for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by recent signals from Iran's new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian expressing openness to nuclear talks and Pakistan's offers to mediate amid escalating regional tensions. Switzerland (10%) trails as a historical neutral site for indirect discussions, while Oman and Qatar (4% each) reflect past hosting roles in Vienna-format negotiations. No meeting by June 30 (12.5%) lingers low due to diplomatic momentum post-Iran's leadership change, but uncertainty persists without official announcements. Key differentiators include Pakistan's strong ties to both Tehran and Washington via recent high-level visits, versus Europe's logistical hurdles; consolidation could follow US State Department statements or scheduled foreign minister engagements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Pakistan 28%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 10%
Other - Middle East/North Africa 5%
Pakistan
28%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
10%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
5%
Oman
4%
Qatar
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
Other - Europe
3%
UAE
3%
Egypt
3%
Russia
3%
USA
2%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Iraq
2%
Kazakhstan
2%
Iran
1%
Pakistan 28%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 10%
Other - Middle East/North Africa 5%
Pakistan
28%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
10%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
5%
Oman
4%
Qatar
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
Other - Europe
3%
UAE
3%
Egypt
3%
Russia
3%
USA
2%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Iraq
2%
Kazakhstan
2%
Iran
1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts heavily toward Pakistan (29.5%) as the venue for the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by recent signals from Iran's new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian expressing openness to nuclear talks and Pakistan's offers to mediate amid escalating regional tensions. Switzerland (10%) trails as a historical neutral site for indirect discussions, while Oman and Qatar (4% each) reflect past hosting roles in Vienna-format negotiations. No meeting by June 30 (12.5%) lingers low due to diplomatic momentum post-Iran's leadership change, but uncertainty persists without official announcements. Key differentiators include Pakistan's strong ties to both Tehran and Washington via recent high-level visits, versus Europe's logistical hurdles; consolidation could follow US State Department statements or scheduled foreign minister engagements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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