US Fifth Fleet warships routinely transit the Strait of Hormuz to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital oil chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, with recent US Central Command updates confirming passages in early April amid elevated tensions. Iran's April 13 seizure of the MSC Aries container ship near the strait, coupled with its retaliatory drone and missile barrage against Israel days earlier, has intensified patrols by coalition partners including UK and French vessels under the International Maritime Security Construct. No confirmed new transits by China or Russia—the last Chinese passage occurred in February—leaving traders focused on potential escalatory deployments before April 30, alongside diplomatic signals from Tehran and risk of further Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
Apr 30, 2026
美國
33%
France
24%
United Kingdom
23%
India
22%
Netherlands
21%
Canada
21%
Pakistan
21%
Italy
21%
Japan
21%
Germany
20%
Greece
20%
$0.00 交易量
美國
$0 交易量
33%
France
$0 交易量
24%
United Kingdom
$0 交易量
23%
India
$0 交易量
22%
Netherlands
$0 交易量
21%
Canada
$0 交易量
21%
Pakistan
$0 交易量
21%
Italy
$0 交易量
21%
Japan
$0 交易量
21%
Germany
$0 交易量
20%
Greece
$0 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US Fifth Fleet warships routinely transit the Strait of Hormuz to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital oil chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, with recent US Central Command updates confirming passages in early April amid elevated tensions. Iran's April 13 seizure of the MSC Aries container ship near the strait, coupled with its retaliatory drone and missile barrage against Israel days earlier, has intensified patrols by coalition partners including UK and French vessels under the International Maritime Security Construct. No confirmed new transits by China or Russia—the last Chinese passage occurred in February—leaving traders focused on potential escalatory deployments before April 30, alongside diplomatic signals from Tehran and risk of further Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US Fifth Fleet warships routinely transit the Strait of Hormuz to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital oil chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, with recent US Central Command updates confirming passages in early April amid elevated tensions. Iran's April 13 seizure of the MSC Aries container ship near the strait, coupled with its retaliatory drone and missile barrage against Israel days earlier, has intensified patrols by coalition partners including UK and French vessels under the International Maritime Security Construct. No confirmed new transits by China or Russia—the last Chinese passage occurred in February—leaving traders focused on potential escalatory deployments before April 30, alongside diplomatic signals from Tehran and risk of further Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$0結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Fifth Fleet warships routinely transit the Strait of Hormuz to uphold freedom of navigation through the vital oil chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, with recent US Central Command updates confirming passages in early April amid elevated tensions. Iran's April 13 seizure of the MSC Aries container ship near the strait, coupled with its retaliatory drone and missile barrage against Israel days earlier, has intensified patrols by coalition partners including UK and French vessels under the International Maritime Security Construct. No confirmed new transits by China or Russia—the last Chinese passage occurred in February—leaving traders focused on potential escalatory deployments before April 30, alongside diplomatic signals from Tehran and risk of further Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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