Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent de-escalation signals amid heightened Middle East tensions. Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 followed Tehran's October 1 missile attack, yet Saudi Arabia and UAE have emphasized diplomacy, with Riyadh hosting Iran-Saudi talks and prioritizing Vision 2030 economic reforms over conflict. Brent crude rallied 4% to $74.50/barrel post-strikes, pricing in supply disruption risks via the Strait of Hormuz, but interdependence in global energy markets deters aggression. Key catalysts include U.S. election outcomes, potential Houthi escalations in the Red Sea, and November OPEC+ meetings, which could amplify volatility if tensions persist.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 15
18%
April 30
26%
$98 交易量
April 15
$74 交易量
18%
April 30
$24 交易量
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent de-escalation signals amid heightened Middle East tensions. Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 followed Tehran's October 1 missile attack, yet Saudi Arabia and UAE have emphasized diplomacy, with Riyadh hosting Iran-Saudi talks and prioritizing Vision 2030 economic reforms over conflict. Brent crude rallied 4% to $74.50/barrel post-strikes, pricing in supply disruption risks via the Strait of Hormuz, but interdependence in global energy markets deters aggression. Key catalysts include U.S. election outcomes, potential Houthi escalations in the Red Sea, and November OPEC+ meetings, which could amplify volatility if tensions persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$98結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent de-escalation signals amid heightened Middle East tensions. Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 followed Tehran's October 1 missile attack, yet Saudi Arabia and UAE have emphasized diplomacy, with Riyadh hosting Iran-Saudi talks and prioritizing Vision 2030 economic reforms over conflict. Brent crude rallied 4% to $74.50/barrel post-strikes, pricing in supply disruption risks via the Strait of Hormuz, but interdependence in global energy markets deters aggression. Key catalysts include U.S. election outcomes, potential Houthi escalations in the Red Sea, and November OPEC+ meetings, which could amplify volatility if tensions persist.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Gulf State initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil by 11:59 PM the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Gulf State's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iran's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements, multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$98結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for Gulf State military action against Iran, driven by recent de-escalation signals amid heightened Middle East tensions. Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian military sites on October 26 followed Tehran's October 1 missile attack, yet Saudi Arabia and UAE have emphasized diplomacy, with Riyadh hosting Iran-Saudi talks and prioritizing Vision 2030 economic reforms over conflict. Brent crude rallied 4% to $74.50/barrel post-strikes, pricing in supply disruption risks via the Strait of Hormuz, but interdependence in global energy markets deters aggression. Key catalysts include U.S. election outcomes, potential Houthi escalations in the Red Sea, and November OPEC+ meetings, which could amplify volatility if tensions persist.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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