Market icon
地緣政治·中東

以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？

Market icon
地緣政治·中東

以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$8,974 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$2,972 交易量

4%

4月30日

$6,003 交易量

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count.

Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,974
結束日期
Apr 30, 2026
市場開放時間
Mar 16, 2026, 8:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Beirut in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Beirut will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trader sentiment on Israeli forces entering Beirut reflects low implied probabilities, driven by Israel's official stance limiting operations to southern Lebanon border areas to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure, as announced in early October 2024 ground incursions. Recent airstrikes have targeted Hezbollah command centers in Beirut's Dahiyeh suburbs, including the September killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah, but no verified IDF ground advances into central Beirut have occurred amid risks of urban warfare and diplomatic backlash. U.S.-led ceasefire talks and UN Security Council pressures add de-escalation incentives, while upcoming Hezbollah counteractions or Israeli cabinet decisions could shift dynamics before year-end deadlines.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4月30日" at 14%, followed by "3月31日" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" is "4月30日" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月31日" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以色列軍隊通過…進入貝魯特？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.