Saudi Arabia has hardened its stance on normalization with Israel, repeatedly conditioning any agreement on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood with East Jerusalem as capital—a demand Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has explicitly rejected as an existential threat. The prolonged Gaza conflict and subsequent Israeli operations in Lebanon, Syria, and elsewhere through 2025-2026 shifted Riyadh from cautious pre-war engagement toward active opposition to the Abraham Accords framework, including formation of alternative regional alignments like the R-4 quartet. Saudi public opinion remains overwhelmingly negative, with polls showing near-universal opposition, while U.S. efforts such as conditioning a civilian nuclear deal have not altered the core impasse. With resolution required before 2027 and no movement on these fundamentals, trader pricing at 91.5% for no normalization reflects the entrenched diplomatic barriers and timeline constraints.