Regulatory acceptance of sports prediction markets, exemplified by the CFTC's September 2024 approval of Kalshi's event contracts on NFL, NBA, and MLB outcomes, bolsters trader consensus that no federal ban will materialize in 2026, reflected in the 72% implied probability for "No." Absent any introduced bills in Congress targeting prediction markets amid booming legalized sports betting across 38 states, legislative momentum remains nil, with industry lobbying focused on expansion rather than restriction. Recent CFTC enforcement against unregistered platforms like Polymarket reinforces oversight without broader prohibition signals, while no hearings, votes, or key holdouts have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds toward enactment. Upcoming 2026 midterms pose distant risks, but current procedural status favors continuity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Regulatory acceptance of sports prediction markets, exemplified by the CFTC's September 2024 approval of Kalshi's event contracts on NFL, NBA, and MLB outcomes, bolsters trader consensus that no federal ban will materialize in 2026, reflected in the 72% implied probability for "No." Absent any introduced bills in Congress targeting prediction markets amid booming legalized sports betting across 38 states, legislative momentum remains nil, with industry lobbying focused on expansion rather than restriction. Recent CFTC enforcement against unregistered platforms like Polymarket reinforces oversight without broader prohibition signals, while no hearings, votes, or key holdouts have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds toward enactment. Upcoming 2026 midterms pose distant risks, but current procedural status favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Regulatory acceptance of sports prediction markets, exemplified by the CFTC's September 2024 approval of Kalshi's event contracts on NFL, NBA, and MLB outcomes, bolsters trader consensus that no federal ban will materialize in 2026, reflected in the 72% implied probability for "No." Absent any introduced bills in Congress targeting prediction markets amid booming legalized sports betting across 38 states, legislative momentum remains nil, with industry lobbying focused on expansion rather than restriction. Recent CFTC enforcement against unregistered platforms like Polymarket reinforces oversight without broader prohibition signals, while no hearings, votes, or key holdouts have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds toward enactment. Upcoming 2026 midterms pose distant risks, but current procedural status favors continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning CFTC-regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Any bill that prohibits federally regulated prediction markets from offering sports betting contracts, or otherwise places such activities under state-level gambling regulation rather than federal regulatory oversight, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
Jun 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 27, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Regulatory acceptance of sports prediction markets, exemplified by the CFTC's September 2024 approval of Kalshi's event contracts on NFL, NBA, and MLB outcomes, bolsters trader consensus that no federal ban will materialize in 2026, reflected in the 72% implied probability for "No." Absent any introduced bills in Congress targeting prediction markets amid booming legalized sports betting across 38 states, legislative momentum remains nil, with industry lobbying focused on expansion rather than restriction. Recent CFTC enforcement against unregistered platforms like Polymarket reinforces oversight without broader prohibition signals, while no hearings, votes, or key holdouts have emerged in the past 30 days to shift odds toward enactment. Upcoming 2026 midterms pose distant risks, but current procedural status favors continuity.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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