**Republican efforts to enact the SAVE Act (H.R. 22 or related SAVE America Act versions) have cleared the House multiple times but remain stalled in the Senate.** The original H.R. 22 passed the House in 2025, while a 2026 version passed 218–213 in February with minimal Democratic support. Senate attempts to advance it—including as amendments to DHS funding, the NDAA, and other must-pass measures—have failed, most notably a June 2026 cloture vote ending 48–50 after four Republicans joined Democrats in opposition. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has declined to schedule further floor action, citing the 60-vote filibuster threshold, limited Republican seats (around 53), and higher priorities such as appropriations deadlines ahead of potential government shutdown risks. No reconciliation path or rules change has succeeded, and Democratic leaders have repeatedly stated the measure is dead on arrival. With Congress reconvening in mid-September 2026 and limited session time remaining before year-end, traders view the barriers to final passage and presidential signature as substantial. These procedural and vote-count realities underpin the 93.5% implied probability against enactment in 2026.