Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$45,762 交易量
$45,762 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$45,762 交易量
$45,762 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$20,975 交易量
96%
Republican Party
$24,788 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$45,762結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$45,762結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETSarah Elfreth’s decisive Democratic primary victory and the district’s consistent Democratic lean of roughly D+12 drive trader consensus that the party will hold Maryland’s 3rd congressional seat. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting its suburban Baltimore and Annapolis composition and Elfreth’s 2024 general-election margin. Republican nominee Berney Flowers faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates routinely exceed 55-60 percent. The 95.5 percent Democratic price captures this baseline advantage and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. Late-cycle national shifts, unexpected scandals, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts make such reversals improbable before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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