Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 4th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with 79% of the vote against multiple challengers, positioning him to face Republican George McDermott in the November general election. The district, centered in Prince George’s County suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles, including Ivey’s 88% win in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on partisan voting history, Ivey’s fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling movement. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a late scandal, health event, or broader national realignment that could alter turnout patterns before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$47,101 交易量
$47,101 交易量
2026-11-02
格倫·艾維（民主黨）
97%
喬治·麥克德莫特（共和黨）
<1%
$47,101 交易量
$47,101 交易量
2026-11-02
格倫·艾維（民主黨）
$21,397 交易量
97%
喬治·麥克德莫特（共和黨）
$25,705 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 4th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with 79% of the vote against multiple challengers, positioning him to face Republican George McDermott in the November general election. The district, centered in Prince George’s County suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles, including Ivey’s 88% win in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on partisan voting history, Ivey’s fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling movement. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a late scandal, health event, or broader national realignment that could alter turnout patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$47,101結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 4th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with 79% of the vote against multiple challengers, positioning him to face Republican George McDermott in the November general election. The district, centered in Prince George’s County suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles, including Ivey’s 88% win in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on partisan voting history, Ivey’s fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling movement. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a late scandal, health event, or broader national realignment that could alter turnout patterns before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$47,101結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETIncumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 4th congressional district in the June 23, 2026 primary with 79% of the vote against multiple challengers, positioning him to face Republican George McDermott in the November general election. The district, centered in Prince George’s County suburbs, has delivered consistent Democratic margins exceeding 70 points in recent cycles, including Ivey’s 88% win in 2024. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic based on partisan voting history, Ivey’s fundraising advantage, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling movement. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors while leaving room for low-probability disruptions such as a late scandal, health event, or broader national realignment that could alter turnout patterns before November 3.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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