Megaquake markets reflect the extreme rarity of magnitude 8.0+ events, which occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average according to USGS historical catalogs. With only two weeks remaining until June 30, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" stems from the absence of elevated seismic indicators, foreshock sequences, or official alerts from monitoring agencies in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia subduction zone or Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term predictability remains low, yet the narrow resolution window and lack of recent model shifts or unusual strain measurements reinforce the strong implied probability. A sudden rupture on a major fault could still occur, though such outcomes are statistically uncommon without preceding geophysical signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月30日前發生超級地震?
是
$79,195 交易量
$79,195 交易量
是
$79,195 交易量
$79,195 交易量
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市場開放時間: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Megaquake markets reflect the extreme rarity of magnitude 8.0+ events, which occur globally only a handful of times per decade on average according to USGS historical catalogs. With only two weeks remaining until June 30, trader consensus at 94.5% for "No" stems from the absence of elevated seismic indicators, foreshock sequences, or official alerts from monitoring agencies in high-risk zones such as the Cascadia subduction zone or Pacific Ring of Fire. Short-term predictability remains low, yet the narrow resolution window and lack of recent model shifts or unusual strain measurements reinforce the strong implied probability. A sudden rupture on a major fault could still occur, though such outcomes are statistically uncommon without preceding geophysical signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions