**Megaquake by June 30?** Traders assign only a 4.5% chance of a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake occurring anywhere before June 30, 2026, because global M8+ events average roughly one to two per year according to long-term USGS records. With just 14 days remaining, the short-term Poisson probability remains low absent any clustering or foreshock activity. The most recent large event, a 7.8 offshore the Philippines on June 8, released strain along a subduction zone but produced only aftershocks below the megaquake threshold. No current monitoring data from the USGS or other agencies shows accelerated tectonic loading, unusual seismic swarms, or precursory signals on major faults capable of M8+ rupture. A statistically rare sudden failure on an unmonitored segment could still occur, though such events lack reliable short-term precursors and remain outside normal forecast windows.