RFK Jr. continues serving as HHS Secretary without confirmed signals of imminent departure as of mid-August 2026, with the administration maintaining continuity in appointments and policy execution on issues such as chronic disease initiatives, vaccine messaging amid measles outbreaks, and agency restructuring. Recent public activities, including cabinet participation and departmental announcements through early August, along with prior denials of resignation rumors, underscore stability. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 68% implied probability due to the absence of acute political, legal, or performance triggers that historically prompt early cabinet exits, reinforced by Senate confirmation patterns and typical tenure benchmarks for such roles. No major developments in the past 30 days have altered this positioning.