As of mid-September 2026, resilient corporate earnings growth, steady GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy easing have anchored trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end, lifting the >$8,000 outcome to a 38% market-implied probability. Equity valuations reflect elevated but stable multiples, supported by declining inflation readings and solid nonfarm payrolls, while the clustered 22% probabilities on the $7,000–$7,500 and $7,500–$8,000 bands capture uncertainty over potential tariff effects and Q4 volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, third-quarter earnings season, and the November FOMC decision, which could refine rate-cut expectations and shift positioning within these ranges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>8,000美元 29%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 22%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$41,611 交易量
$41,611 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
7%
6,000-6,500美元
6%
6,500-7,000美元
10%
7,000-7,500
22%
7,500-8,000美元
22%
>8,000美元
35%
>8,000美元 29%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 22%
6,500-7,000美元 10%
$41,611 交易量
$41,611 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$21,149 交易量
7%
6,000-6,500美元
$2,365 交易量
6%
6,500-7,000美元
$4,577 交易量
10%
7,000-7,500
$2,746 交易量
22%
7,500-8,000美元
$4,293 交易量
22%
>8,000美元
$6,482 交易量
35%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."As of mid-September 2026, resilient corporate earnings growth, steady GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy easing have anchored trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end, lifting the >$8,000 outcome to a 38% market-implied probability. Equity valuations reflect elevated but stable multiples, supported by declining inflation readings and solid nonfarm payrolls, while the clustered 22% probabilities on the $7,000–$7,500 and $7,500–$8,000 bands capture uncertainty over potential tariff effects and Q4 volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, third-quarter earnings season, and the November FOMC decision, which could refine rate-cut expectations and shift positioning within these ranges.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$41,611結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."As of mid-September 2026, resilient corporate earnings growth, steady GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy easing have anchored trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end, lifting the >$8,000 outcome to a 38% market-implied probability. Equity valuations reflect elevated but stable multiples, supported by declining inflation readings and solid nonfarm payrolls, while the clustered 22% probabilities on the $7,000–$7,500 and $7,500–$8,000 bands capture uncertainty over potential tariff effects and Q4 volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, third-quarter earnings season, and the November FOMC decision, which could refine rate-cut expectations and shift positioning within these ranges.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$41,611結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAs of mid-September 2026, resilient corporate earnings growth, steady GDP expansion, and the Federal Reserve’s measured policy easing have anchored trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end, lifting the >$8,000 outcome to a 38% market-implied probability. Equity valuations reflect elevated but stable multiples, supported by declining inflation readings and solid nonfarm payrolls, while the clustered 22% probabilities on the $7,000–$7,500 and $7,500–$8,000 bands capture uncertainty over potential tariff effects and Q4 volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release, third-quarter earnings season, and the November FOMC decision, which could refine rate-cut expectations and shift positioning within these ranges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions