Trader sentiment on the S&P 500’s end-2026 close remains balanced across the $7,000–$8,000+ range, with the highest implied probability at just 26% for a close above 8,000. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000 on stronger earnings estimates and Morgan Stanley aligning at the same level, support the upper buckets, while sticky core inflation near 3% and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing. The index’s recent pullback from May highs near 7,500 underscores volatility around current levels, with upcoming CPI prints, FOMC communications, and second-quarter earnings serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>8,000美元 23%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
$29,937 交易量
$29,937 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
12%
6,000-6,500美元
10%
6,500-7,000美元
13%
7,000-7,500
22%
7,500-8,000美元
21%
>8,000美元
27%
>8,000美元 23%
7,000-7,500 22%
7,500-8,000美元 21%
6,500-7,000美元 13%
$29,937 交易量
$29,937 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$17,357 交易量
12%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,802 交易量
10%
6,500-7,000美元
$3,004 交易量
13%
7,000-7,500
$1,575 交易量
22%
7,500-8,000美元
$3,019 交易量
21%
>8,000美元
$3,180 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on the S&P 500’s end-2026 close remains balanced across the $7,000–$8,000+ range, with the highest implied probability at just 26% for a close above 8,000. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000 on stronger earnings estimates and Morgan Stanley aligning at the same level, support the upper buckets, while sticky core inflation near 3% and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing. The index’s recent pullback from May highs near 7,500 underscores volatility around current levels, with upcoming CPI prints, FOMC communications, and second-quarter earnings serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$29,937結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on the S&P 500’s end-2026 close remains balanced across the $7,000–$8,000+ range, with the highest implied probability at just 26% for a close above 8,000. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000 on stronger earnings estimates and Morgan Stanley aligning at the same level, support the upper buckets, while sticky core inflation near 3% and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing. The index’s recent pullback from May highs near 7,500 underscores volatility around current levels, with upcoming CPI prints, FOMC communications, and second-quarter earnings serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$29,937結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader sentiment on the S&P 500’s end-2026 close remains balanced across the $7,000–$8,000+ range, with the highest implied probability at just 26% for a close above 8,000. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs lifting its year-end target to 8,000 on stronger earnings estimates and Morgan Stanley aligning at the same level, support the upper buckets, while sticky core inflation near 3% and lingering Middle East energy-price pressures have tempered expectations for aggressive Fed easing. The index’s recent pullback from May highs near 7,500 underscores volatility around current levels, with upcoming CPI prints, FOMC communications, and second-quarter earnings serving as key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution of probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions