Robust corporate earnings growth, driven by AI-related capital expenditures and productivity gains, underpins the dispersed S&P 500 (SPX) closing probabilities for end-2026, with the >$8,000 outcome leading at 26%. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs raising its year-end 2026 target to 8,000 and a Reuters poll median of 7,620, reflect upgraded EPS estimates amid resilient first-quarter beats. However, sticky inflation, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, and consumer strain introduce downside risks that cap consensus and spread probabilities across the $6,500–$8,000 bands. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC communications on monetary policy, quarterly earnings releases, and inflation data that could shift rate-cut expectations and equity valuations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於>8,000美元 23%
7,000-7,500 20%
7,500-8,000美元 18%
6,500-7,000美元 16%
$29,788 交易量
$29,788 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
11%
6,000-6,500美元
12%
6,500-7,000美元
16%
7,000-7,500
20%
7,500-8,000美元
18%
>8,000美元
26%
>8,000美元 23%
7,000-7,500 20%
7,500-8,000美元 18%
6,500-7,000美元 16%
$29,788 交易量
$29,788 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$17,269 交易量
11%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,790 交易量
12%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,992 交易量
16%
7,000-7,500
$1,575 交易量
20%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,982 交易量
18%
>8,000美元
$3,180 交易量
26%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, driven by AI-related capital expenditures and productivity gains, underpins the dispersed S&P 500 (SPX) closing probabilities for end-2026, with the >$8,000 outcome leading at 26%. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs raising its year-end 2026 target to 8,000 and a Reuters poll median of 7,620, reflect upgraded EPS estimates amid resilient first-quarter beats. However, sticky inflation, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, and consumer strain introduce downside risks that cap consensus and spread probabilities across the $6,500–$8,000 bands. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC communications on monetary policy, quarterly earnings releases, and inflation data that could shift rate-cut expectations and equity valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$29,788結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, driven by AI-related capital expenditures and productivity gains, underpins the dispersed S&P 500 (SPX) closing probabilities for end-2026, with the >$8,000 outcome leading at 26%. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs raising its year-end 2026 target to 8,000 and a Reuters poll median of 7,620, reflect upgraded EPS estimates amid resilient first-quarter beats. However, sticky inflation, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, and consumer strain introduce downside risks that cap consensus and spread probabilities across the $6,500–$8,000 bands. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC communications on monetary policy, quarterly earnings releases, and inflation data that could shift rate-cut expectations and equity valuations.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$29,788結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETRobust corporate earnings growth, driven by AI-related capital expenditures and productivity gains, underpins the dispersed S&P 500 (SPX) closing probabilities for end-2026, with the >$8,000 outcome leading at 26%. Recent analyst upgrades, including Goldman Sachs raising its year-end 2026 target to 8,000 and a Reuters poll median of 7,620, reflect upgraded EPS estimates amid resilient first-quarter beats. However, sticky inflation, elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions, and consumer strain introduce downside risks that cap consensus and spread probabilities across the $6,500–$8,000 bands. Key upcoming catalysts include further FOMC communications on monetary policy, quarterly earnings releases, and inflation data that could shift rate-cut expectations and equity valuations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions