2026年度VMA影片

The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特） 66%

Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜） 25%

Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande) 6%

Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作） 6%

最新

2026-09-27

The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）

$135 交易量

66%

Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜）

$65 交易量

25%

Hate That I Made You Love Me (Ariana Grande)

$30 交易量

Storm（Gener8ion 與 Yung Lean 合作）

$2 交易量

I Just Might（Bruno Mars）

$39 交易量

Tears（Sabrina Carpenter）

$14 交易量

The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year. If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

交易量

$285

結束日期

2026-09-28

市場開放時間

Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

交易量

$285

結束日期

2026-09-28

市場開放時間

Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年度VMA影片" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）" at 66%, followed by "Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜）" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 66¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年度VMA影片" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年度VMA影片," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年度VMA影片" is "The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）" at 66%, meaning the market assigns a 66% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Confessions II – The Film（瑪丹娜）" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年度VMA影片" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年度VMA影片." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “2026年度VMA影片” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年度VMA影片," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 66¢ for "The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）" in the "2026年度VMA影片" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 66% chance that "The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒斯威夫特）" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 66¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 34¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年度VMA影片" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Sep 27, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年度VMA影片" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年度VMA影片." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年度VMA影片

2026年度VMA影片

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Frequently Asked Questions

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