Recent polling trends ahead of the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show the SPD consistently at or below 13 percent, most recently at 12 percent in the September 10 Infratest dimap survey for ARD. This places the party behind the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens, reflecting continued erosion of support from its 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. Traders assign 70 percent probability to an under-13 percent outcome because multiple recent surveys, including those from INSA and others, have clustered in the 11-15 percent range with limited upward movement despite minor weekly fluctuations. The party’s position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition has coincided with voter shifts toward opposition parties, tightening the implied probability that the SPD will remain below the 13 percent threshold on election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于超过
30% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
超过
30% 概率
最新
最新
2026-09-20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends ahead of the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show the SPD consistently at or below 13 percent, most recently at 12 percent in the September 10 Infratest dimap survey for ARD. This places the party behind the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens, reflecting continued erosion of support from its 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. Traders assign 70 percent probability to an under-13 percent outcome because multiple recent surveys, including those from INSA and others, have clustered in the 11-15 percent range with limited upward movement despite minor weekly fluctuations. The party’s position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition has coincided with voter shifts toward opposition parties, tightening the implied probability that the SPD will remain below the 13 percent threshold on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ET
交易量
$193结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends ahead of the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show the SPD consistently at or below 13 percent, most recently at 12 percent in the September 10 Infratest dimap survey for ARD. This places the party behind the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens, reflecting continued erosion of support from its 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. Traders assign 70 percent probability to an under-13 percent outcome because multiple recent surveys, including those from INSA and others, have clustered in the 11-15 percent range with limited upward movement despite minor weekly fluctuations. The party’s position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition has coincided with voter shifts toward opposition parties, tightening the implied probability that the SPD will remain below the 13 percent threshold on election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 13% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$193结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:20 PM ETRecent polling trends ahead of the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election show the SPD consistently at or below 13 percent, most recently at 12 percent in the September 10 Infratest dimap survey for ARD. This places the party behind the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens, reflecting continued erosion of support from its 18.4 percent share in the 2023 repeat election. Traders assign 70 percent probability to an under-13 percent outcome because multiple recent surveys, including those from INSA and others, have clustered in the 11-15 percent range with limited upward movement despite minor weekly fluctuations. The party’s position as junior partner in the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition has coincided with voter shifts toward opposition parties, tightening the implied probability that the SPD will remain below the 13 percent threshold on election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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