**Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, money laundering, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations.** Multiple additional proceedings have advanced in parallel, including a September 11, 2026, conviction for insulting a public official that imposed a 2-year, 1-month prison term plus a political ban. The primary corruption case, involving over 400 defendants and a lengthy indictment, began trial proceedings in March 2026 and faces an extended timeline. Appeals in the recent case remain possible, yet the cumulative legal exposure and procedural trajectory have produced strong trader consensus that release before the end of 2026 is improbable. No major intervening developments, such as acquittals or executive interventions, have altered this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
6% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, money laundering, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations.** Multiple additional proceedings have advanced in parallel, including a September 11, 2026, conviction for insulting a public official that imposed a 2-year, 1-month prison term plus a political ban. The primary corruption case, involving over 400 defendants and a lengthy indictment, began trial proceedings in March 2026 and faces an extended timeline. Appeals in the recent case remain possible, yet the cumulative legal exposure and procedural trajectory have produced strong trader consensus that release before the end of 2026 is improbable. No major intervening developments, such as acquittals or executive interventions, have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, money laundering, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations.** Multiple additional proceedings have advanced in parallel, including a September 11, 2026, conviction for insulting a public official that imposed a 2-year, 1-month prison term plus a political ban. The primary corruption case, involving over 400 defendants and a lengthy indictment, began trial proceedings in March 2026 and faces an extended timeline. Appeals in the recent case remain possible, yet the cumulative legal exposure and procedural trajectory have produced strong trader consensus that release before the end of 2026 is improbable. No major intervening developments, such as acquittals or executive interventions, have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ekrem İmamoğlu is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Ekrem İmamoğlu is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Ekrem İmamoğlu to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,407结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 24, 2026, 9:50 PM ET**Ekrem İmamoğlu has remained in custody since his March 2025 arrest on corruption, money laundering, and organized crime charges tied to Istanbul municipal operations.** Multiple additional proceedings have advanced in parallel, including a September 11, 2026, conviction for insulting a public official that imposed a 2-year, 1-month prison term plus a political ban. The primary corruption case, involving over 400 defendants and a lengthy indictment, began trial proceedings in March 2026 and faces an extended timeline. Appeals in the recent case remain possible, yet the cumulative legal exposure and procedural trajectory have produced strong trader consensus that release before the end of 2026 is improbable. No major intervening developments, such as acquittals or executive interventions, have altered this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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