Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 6?
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 交易量
$122,585 交易量
2026-05-06
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$122,585 交易量
$122,585 交易量
2026-05-06
23°C or below
$10,357 交易量
No
24°C
$6,554 交易量
No
25°C
$29,203 交易量
No
26°C
$21,746 交易量
Yes
27°C
$15,744 交易量
No
28°C
$13,266 交易量
No
29°C
$11,059 交易量
No
30°C
$6,249 交易量
No
31°C
$2,845 交易量
No
32°C
$3,623 交易量
No
33°C or higher
$1,940 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET
交易量
$122,585结束日期
2026-05-06市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$122,585结束日期
2026-05-06市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 12:41 PM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 26°C as the highest temperature in Beijing on May 6 at 100% implied probability, driven by China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observational data from key stations showing midday peaks of 25–26°C amid persistent cloud cover and light northerly breezes that advect cooler air and limit solar heating. Official bulletins report a maximum near 25°C, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing's 24–25°C forecast and AccuWeather models at around 27°C (81°F), converging on 26°C as the measured outcome under stable atmospheric conditions typical for early May. Recent $20,000+ volume on this outcome reflects confidence in low UV index and wind shear preventing surges. A realistic challenge would require unexpected afternoon clearing for intensified insolation, though model ensembles indicate minimal risk as the day progresses toward evening cooldown. Final CMA high-temperature confirmation expected soon.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题