Trader consensus heavily favors Chicago's highest temperature on March 22 at 63°F or below (58%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a high near 62°F amid a reinforcing cool front from the northwest. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering around 60-63°F, reflecting persistent upper-level troughing over the Midwest suppressing warm advection. Recent observations confirm cooling trends, with yesterday's high at 58°F and dew points dropping below 30°F, limiting convective potential. Historical March baselines average 46°F, but this mild winter's volatility adds slight upside risk to 64-65°F (20%), though low-probability heat outliers remain negligible per verified soundings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 58%
64-65°F 19.9%
66-67°F 4.5%
68-69°F 2.5%
$54,331 交易量
$54,331 交易量
63°F or below
58%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
63°F or below 58%
64-65°F 19.9%
66-67°F 4.5%
68-69°F 2.5%
$54,331 交易量
$54,331 交易量
63°F or below
58%
64-65°F
20%
66-67°F
5%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Chicago's highest temperature on March 22 at 63°F or below (58%), driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a high near 62°F amid a reinforcing cool front from the northwest. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight clustering around 60-63°F, reflecting persistent upper-level troughing over the Midwest suppressing warm advection. Recent observations confirm cooling trends, with yesterday's high at 58°F and dew points dropping below 30°F, limiting convective potential. Historical March baselines average 46°F, but this mild winter's volatility adds slight upside risk to 64-65°F (20%), though low-probability heat outliers remain negligible per verified soundings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题