Trader sentiment for Taipei's March 24 highest temperature remains tightly split, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5% implied probability, reflecting divergent ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF amid uncertainty over a lingering frontal boundary's influence. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration projects a baseline high near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, but GFS runs skew warmer (up to 30°C) due to potential subsidence and urban heat amplification, while ECMWF variants favor cooler outcomes (22-24°C) if northeasterly winds strengthen, suppressing daytime heating. Historical March data shows highs averaging 23°C with 10-15% outlier tails, heightening volatility; traders eye today's 12Z model updates for resolution catalysts differentiating these poles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 24?
21°C or below 26%
31°C or higher 26%
27°C 25%
26°C 18%
21°C or below
26%
22°C
12%
23°C
15%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
25%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
26%
21°C or below 26%
31°C or higher 26%
27°C 25%
26°C 18%
21°C or below
26%
22°C
12%
23°C
15%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C
18%
27°C
25%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
12%
31°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 20, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Taipei's March 24 highest temperature remains tightly split, with 21°C or below and 31°C or higher both at 25.5% implied probability, reflecting divergent ensemble forecasts from global models like GFS and ECMWF amid uncertainty over a lingering frontal boundary's influence. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration projects a baseline high near 26°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds, but GFS runs skew warmer (up to 30°C) due to potential subsidence and urban heat amplification, while ECMWF variants favor cooler outcomes (22-24°C) if northeasterly winds strengthen, suppressing daytime heating. Historical March data shows highs averaging 23°C with 10-15% outlier tails, heightening volatility; traders eye today's 12Z model updates for resolution catalysts differentiating these poles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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