Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects model ensemble uncertainty for Los Angeles' March 24 high, with 74-83°F bins at 25.5% each and 84°F+ edging ahead at 26%, driven by NOAA's GFS leaning hotter (82-85°F) amid a potent high-pressure ridge promoting adiabatic warming and Santa Ana-like downslope flow. ECMWF counters cooler at 72-76°F, factoring persistent coastal marine layer delaying burn-off, per NWS Los Angeles forecasts. Differentiation stems from cloud deck persistence—inversion strength could cap peaks below 80°F—or rapid diurnal heating pushing 84°F if skies clear by noon, against March climatology averaging 70°F highs. Watch 12z model runs for catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 24?
76-77°F 26%
84°F or higher 26%
74-75°F 18%
78-79°F 18%
65°F or below
8%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
18%
84°F or higher
26%
76-77°F 26%
84°F or higher 26%
74-75°F 18%
78-79°F 18%
65°F or below
8%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
26%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
18%
74-75°F
18%
76-77°F
26%
78-79°F
18%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
18%
84°F or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 20, 2026, 6:06 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects model ensemble uncertainty for Los Angeles' March 24 high, with 74-83°F bins at 25.5% each and 84°F+ edging ahead at 26%, driven by NOAA's GFS leaning hotter (82-85°F) amid a potent high-pressure ridge promoting adiabatic warming and Santa Ana-like downslope flow. ECMWF counters cooler at 72-76°F, factoring persistent coastal marine layer delaying burn-off, per NWS Los Angeles forecasts. Differentiation stems from cloud deck persistence—inversion strength could cap peaks below 80°F—or rapid diurnal heating pushing 84°F if skies clear by noon, against March climatology averaging 70°F highs. Watch 12z model runs for catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题