Trader consensus on Shenzhen's March 24 highest temperature reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS diverging sharply: GFS clusters warmer at 27-29°C amid southerly winds and urban heat island effects boosting diurnal peaks, while ECMWF favors 24-26°C under anticipated cloud cover and sea breezes dampening highs. Historical March norms hover at 23-25°C, but recent subtropical warming trends and low rain probability (under 20%) slightly edge odds toward 28°C (26.5%). Key differentiator is afternoon insolation—clear skies could push 30°C+, while scattered convection risks capping at 24°C; watch CMA updates at 0600 UTC for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
20°C or below 35%
21°C 35%
28°C 27%
24°C 26%
20°C or below
35%
21°C
35%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
18%
20°C or below 35%
21°C 35%
28°C 27%
24°C 26%
20°C or below
35%
21°C
35%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
18%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Shenzhen's March 24 highest temperature reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts, with model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS diverging sharply: GFS clusters warmer at 27-29°C amid southerly winds and urban heat island effects boosting diurnal peaks, while ECMWF favors 24-26°C under anticipated cloud cover and sea breezes dampening highs. Historical March norms hover at 23-25°C, but recent subtropical warming trends and low rain probability (under 20%) slightly edge odds toward 28°C (26.5%). Key differentiator is afternoon insolation—clear skies could push 30°C+, while scattered convection risks capping at 24°C; watch CMA updates at 0600 UTC for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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