Trader sentiment for Beijing's highest temperature on March 22 shows near-even odds across outcomes, driven by persistent model divergence in short-range forecasts amid the city's volatile early spring weather patterns. Official projections from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS indicate a clustered range of 16–21°C, with slight leans toward 18–20°C based on ensemble means, but cold frontal passages could suppress highs to 16°C or below, while prolonged sunlight and urban heat island effects might push toward 21–23°C. Recent developments, including yesterday's cooler-than-average readings and incoming northerly winds, heighten uncertainty, as historical March data shows standard deviations of 4–5°C around Beijing's 12°C norm. Traders eye today's CMA update for resolution cues.