Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 2?
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$61,684 交易量
$61,684 交易量
2026-05-02
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
Yes
25°C or higher 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$61,684 交易量
$61,684 交易量
2026-05-02
15°C or below
$2,351 交易量
No
16°C
$1,647 交易量
No
17°C
$1,199 交易量
No
18°C
$2,059 交易量
No
19°C
$1,892 交易量
No
20°C
$4,267 交易量
No
21°C
$7,713 交易量
No
22°C
$9,321 交易量
No
23°C
$8,064 交易量
No
24°C
$10,058 交易量
No
25°C or higher
$13,113 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
交易量
$61,684结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$61,684结束日期
2026-05-02市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:07 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Current midday observations at Tokyo's Haneda Airport station, the market's resolution source, have already surpassed 25°C under clear skies, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 25°C or higher as the day's highest temperature. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts a peak of 28°C, supported by ensemble model agreement on a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence warming and above-normal spring conditions in the Kanto region—historical May 2 averages sit at 22°C. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game alignment with real-time data and stable upper-air patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer clouds dimming late-afternoon insolation or a sudden cool front, though JMA's evening update shows no such signals; final Haneda data finalizes post-midnight.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题