Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 7?
24°C or higher 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$86,854 交易量
$86,854 交易量
2026-05-07
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
Yes
24°C or higher 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$86,854 交易量
$86,854 交易量
2026-05-07
14°C or below
$2,750 交易量
No
15°C
$4,640 交易量
No
16°C
$5,080 交易量
No
17°C
$7,292 交易量
No
18°C
$6,638 交易量
No
19°C
$4,194 交易量
No
20°C
$6,300 交易量
No
21°C
$16,024 交易量
No
22°C
$10,753 交易量
No
23°C
$8,823 交易量
No
24°C or higher
$14,362 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
交易量
$86,854结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$86,854结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast, updated at 05:00 JST today, projects Tokyo's highest temperature at 25°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation odds (under 40%), driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for 24°C or higher—well above the May daily normal of 22.8°C. This reflects favorable seasonal solar heating and high-pressure influence, consistent with recent above-normal warmth like 28°C on May 4, amid a broader 2026 summer outlook for elevated temperatures. Model ensembles show minimal disagreement on daytime maxima, supported by current morning readings already climbing into the low 20s°C at central Tokyo stations. Realistic challenges include unexpected marine layer persistence or a stalled front introducing cooler air, though official hourly observations through evening will confirm the peak, with resolution based on JMA's Tokyo observatory data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题