**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月8日惠灵顿的最高温度？
7月8日惠灵顿的最高温度？
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$111,459 交易量
$111,459 交易量
2026-07-08
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$111,459 交易量
$111,459 交易量
2026-07-08
7°C or below
$3,447 交易量
No
8°C
$4,283 交易量
No
9°C
$3,368 交易量
No
10°C
$6,081 交易量
No
11°C
$18,505 交易量
No
12°C
$20,917 交易量
No
13°C
$16,717 交易量
Yes
14°C
$12,039 交易量
No
15°C
$4,694 交易量
No
16°C
$3,024 交易量
No
17°C or higher
$18,383 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$111,459结束日期
2026-07-08市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$111,459结束日期
2026-07-08市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 12:02 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
**Wellington's winter temperature variability centers on southerly airflow strength and cloud cover as the key drivers for July 8 maximums.** Official climatology places the July average high near 12°C, with NIWA's May–July 2026 outlook assigning roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average conditions for the Wellington region amid typical Southern Ocean influences. Short-range guidance from MetService currently shows highs around 12°C under mostly cloudy skies and easing but persistent southerlies, which advect cooler maritime air and limit daytime warming. Minor model differences in front timing or wind backing could easily tip the daily peak between 11–13°C, explaining why the market assigns nearly equal implied probabilities to 12°C (42.5%) and 13°C (39.5%). Clearer skies or a temporary northerly component would favor the upper end of that narrow range, while stronger onshore flow or showers would cap readings closer to 11°C. Updated NWP runs and the next MetService briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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