The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Paris on June 4?
Lowest temperature in Paris on June 4?
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 交易量
$15,223 交易量
2026-06-04
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$15,223 交易量
$15,223 交易量
2026-06-04
7°C or below
$1,408 交易量
No
8°C
$273 交易量
No
9°C
$430 交易量
No
10°C
$416 交易量
No
11°C
$1,110 交易量
No
12°C
$659 交易量
No
13°C
$1,120 交易量
No
14°C
$1,206 交易量
No
15°C
$856 交易量
Yes
16°C
$1,358 交易量
No
17°C or higher
$6,387 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ET
交易量
$15,223结束日期
2026-06-04市场开放时间
Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$15,223结束日期
2026-06-04市场开放时间
Jun 2, 2026, 12:35 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
The market-implied probability above 99% for a 15°C low stems from official Météo-France guidance projecting a minimum temperature of 15°C in Paris on June 4, aligning closely with early June climatology where average overnight lows hover near 14°C. A passing perturbation bringing scattered showers and below-normal maxima elsewhere in France has not triggered the stronger cooling needed for lower readings in the Paris basin, where steering patterns and surface conditions favor this stable range. Model consensus remains tight, with limited scope for revision before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题