Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months, with no reliable short-term precursors identified in global seismic monitoring. Recent developments, including a powerful earthquake off Japan in late April that marginally elevated Japan Trench stress per Japan Meteorological Agency models—yielding only a ~1% chance of an M8.0 there soon—have not shifted USGS worldwide data, which shows no anomalous activity in high-risk zones like Cascadia Subduction Zone or Nankai Trough. Historical baselines average one M8+ globally per year, but current quietude across megathrust faults underpins the low "Yes" odds, with continuous real-time USGS feeds as the next key watchpoint.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
$63,806 交易量
$63,806 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$63,806 交易量
$63,806 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months, with no reliable short-term precursors identified in global seismic monitoring. Recent developments, including a powerful earthquake off Japan in late April that marginally elevated Japan Trench stress per Japan Meteorological Agency models—yielding only a ~1% chance of an M8.0 there soon—have not shifted USGS worldwide data, which shows no anomalous activity in high-risk zones like Cascadia Subduction Zone or Nankai Trough. Historical baselines average one M8+ globally per year, but current quietude across megathrust faults underpins the low "Yes" odds, with continuous real-time USGS feeds as the next key watchpoint.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$63,806结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months, with no reliable short-term precursors identified in global seismic monitoring. Recent developments, including a powerful earthquake off Japan in late April that marginally elevated Japan Trench stress per Japan Meteorological Agency models—yielding only a ~1% chance of an M8.0 there soon—have not shifted USGS worldwide data, which shows no anomalous activity in high-risk zones like Cascadia Subduction Zone or Nankai Trough. Historical baselines average one M8+ globally per year, but current quietude across megathrust faults underpins the low "Yes" odds, with continuous real-time USGS feeds as the next key watchpoint.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$63,806结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 85% probability of no magnitude 8.0+ megaquake by June 30, aligning with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments that such events remain fundamentally unpredictable on timescales of weeks to months, with no reliable short-term precursors identified in global seismic monitoring. Recent developments, including a powerful earthquake off Japan in late April that marginally elevated Japan Trench stress per Japan Meteorological Agency models—yielding only a ~1% chance of an M8.0 there soon—have not shifted USGS worldwide data, which shows no anomalous activity in high-risk zones like Cascadia Subduction Zone or Nankai Trough. Historical baselines average one M8+ globally per year, but current quietude across megathrust faults underpins the low "Yes" odds, with continuous real-time USGS feeds as the next key watchpoint.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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