Recent Léger and other polls ahead of the October 5 Quebec election show the PQ leading at around 30 percent, with the PLQ and CAQ tied near 23 percent and the PCQ rising to 13–16 percent. This positioning creates a fluid contest for third place, where the CAQ and PCQ sit closest in implied probability as francophone voters consolidate and second-choice preferences remain widely distributed. The CAQ’s modest rebound under Premier Christine Fréchette and the PCQ’s regional strength, especially around Quebec City, keep their third-place chances nearly even. Key variables that could separate outcomes include turnout among francophones, the impact of U.S. trade tensions, and any late shifts in second preferences during the official campaign that begins August 29.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PCQ 44%
CAQ 43%
PLQ 27%
PQ 25%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
PCQ
44%
CAQ
43%
PLQ
27%
PQ
25%
QS
21%
PVQ
5%
PCQ 44%
CAQ 43%
PLQ 27%
PQ 25%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
PCQ
$0 交易量
44%
CAQ
$0 交易量
43%
PLQ
$0 交易量
27%
PQ
$0 交易量
25%
QS
$61 交易量
21%
PVQ
$167 交易量
5%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent Léger and other polls ahead of the October 5 Quebec election show the PQ leading at around 30 percent, with the PLQ and CAQ tied near 23 percent and the PCQ rising to 13–16 percent. This positioning creates a fluid contest for third place, where the CAQ and PCQ sit closest in implied probability as francophone voters consolidate and second-choice preferences remain widely distributed. The CAQ’s modest rebound under Premier Christine Fréchette and the PCQ’s regional strength, especially around Quebec City, keep their third-place chances nearly even. Key variables that could separate outcomes include turnout among francophones, the impact of U.S. trade tensions, and any late shifts in second preferences during the official campaign that begins August 29.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ET
交易量
$228结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent Léger and other polls ahead of the October 5 Quebec election show the PQ leading at around 30 percent, with the PLQ and CAQ tied near 23 percent and the PCQ rising to 13–16 percent. This positioning creates a fluid contest for third place, where the CAQ and PCQ sit closest in implied probability as francophone voters consolidate and second-choice preferences remain widely distributed. The CAQ’s modest rebound under Premier Christine Fréchette and the PCQ’s regional strength, especially around Quebec City, keep their third-place chances nearly even. Key variables that could separate outcomes include turnout among francophones, the impact of U.S. trade tensions, and any late shifts in second preferences during the official campaign that begins August 29.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
交易量
$228结束日期
2026-10-05市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 7:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Léger and other polls ahead of the October 5 Quebec election show the PQ leading at around 30 percent, with the PLQ and CAQ tied near 23 percent and the PCQ rising to 13–16 percent. This positioning creates a fluid contest for third place, where the CAQ and PCQ sit closest in implied probability as francophone voters consolidate and second-choice preferences remain widely distributed. The CAQ’s modest rebound under Premier Christine Fréchette and the PCQ’s regional strength, especially around Quebec City, keep their third-place chances nearly even. Key variables that could separate outcomes include turnout among francophones, the impact of U.S. trade tensions, and any late shifts in second preferences during the official campaign that begins August 29.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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