Google DeepMind's silence on Veo 4, its next flagship AI video generation model, drives low trader-implied probabilities for near-term releases like by April 30, with consensus under 2% on Polymarket amid Veo 3.1's paid preview rollout on March 31. Historical patterns—Veo 3 unveiled at Google I/O May 2025—position the May 19-20, 2026 developer conference as the pivotal catalyst for announcement and public access, requiring explicit Veo 4 branding beyond incremental updates. Competitive heat from Alibaba's HappyHorse 1.0 topping April benchmarks and rivals like Seedance 2.0 underscores demands for advances in 4K clips, persistent characters, and cinematic controls, though training delays and capability hurdles often shift timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$43,510 交易量
2026-04-30
4月30日
3%
$43,510 交易量
4月30日
$1,220 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google DeepMind's silence on Veo 4, its next flagship AI video generation model, drives low trader-implied probabilities for near-term releases like by April 30, with consensus under 2% on Polymarket amid Veo 3.1's paid preview rollout on March 31. Historical patterns—Veo 3 unveiled at Google I/O May 2025—position the May 19-20, 2026 developer conference as the pivotal catalyst for announcement and public access, requiring explicit Veo 4 branding beyond incremental updates. Competitive heat from Alibaba's HappyHorse 1.0 topping April benchmarks and rivals like Seedance 2.0 underscores demands for advances in 4K clips, persistent characters, and cinematic controls, though training delays and capability hurdles often shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
交易量
$43,510结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google DeepMind's silence on Veo 4, its next flagship AI video generation model, drives low trader-implied probabilities for near-term releases like by April 30, with consensus under 2% on Polymarket amid Veo 3.1's paid preview rollout on March 31. Historical patterns—Veo 3 unveiled at Google I/O May 2025—position the May 19-20, 2026 developer conference as the pivotal catalyst for announcement and public access, requiring explicit Veo 4 branding beyond incremental updates. Competitive heat from Alibaba's HappyHorse 1.0 topping April benchmarks and rivals like Seedance 2.0 underscores demands for advances in 4K clips, persistent characters, and cinematic controls, though training delays and capability hurdles often shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google DeepMind's Veo 4 model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Veo 4 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Veo 4 refers to a product explicitly named Veo 4, Veo 4.0, or one that is recognized as a successor to Veo 3, similar to the progression from Veo 2 to Veo 3. Products labeled as Veo 3.2, Veo 3.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$43,510结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google DeepMind's silence on Veo 4, its next flagship AI video generation model, drives low trader-implied probabilities for near-term releases like by April 30, with consensus under 2% on Polymarket amid Veo 3.1's paid preview rollout on March 31. Historical patterns—Veo 3 unveiled at Google I/O May 2025—position the May 19-20, 2026 developer conference as the pivotal catalyst for announcement and public access, requiring explicit Veo 4 branding beyond incremental updates. Competitive heat from Alibaba's HappyHorse 1.0 topping April benchmarks and rivals like Seedance 2.0 underscores demands for advances in 4K clips, persistent characters, and cinematic controls, though training delays and capability hurdles often shift timelines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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