Pakistan leads trader consensus at 26.5% for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent overtures, including Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar's April proposal to mediate and host direct talks amid regional tensions. Traditional neutral venues like Switzerland (10.5%, site of past Geneva talks) and Oman (4.5%, frequent indirect mediator) trail, differentiated by historical precedent versus Pakistan's fresh momentum on border security and Balochistan cooperation. Oman and Qatar share Gulf mediation roles, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 12.5% reflects escalation risks from Iran nuclear disputes or Israel conflicts. Consolidation could follow US State Department or Iranian official venue confirmation, with wide-open odds signaling high uncertainty ahead of potential June catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Pakistan 27%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 11%
Oman 5%
$11,210 交易量
$11,210 交易量
Pakistan
27%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
11%
Oman
5%
Qatar
5%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
UAE
3%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Other - Europe
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Egypt
2%
Russia
2%
USA
2%
Iran
1%
Iraq
1%
Kazakhstan
1%
Pakistan 27%
No Meeting by June 30 13%
Switzerland 11%
Oman 5%
$11,210 交易量
$11,210 交易量
Pakistan
27%
No Meeting by June 30
13%
Switzerland
11%
Oman
5%
Qatar
5%
Other - Middle East/North Africa
4%
Other
4%
Turkey
3%
UAE
3%
Austria
2%
Italy
2%
Other - Europe
2%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Egypt
2%
Russia
2%
USA
2%
Iran
1%
Iraq
1%
Kazakhstan
1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间: Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Pakistan leads trader consensus at 26.5% for hosting the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting, driven by Islamabad's recent overtures, including Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar's April proposal to mediate and host direct talks amid regional tensions. Traditional neutral venues like Switzerland (10.5%, site of past Geneva talks) and Oman (4.5%, frequent indirect mediator) trail, differentiated by historical precedent versus Pakistan's fresh momentum on border security and Balochistan cooperation. Oman and Qatar share Gulf mediation roles, while "No Meeting by June 30" at 12.5% reflects escalation risks from Iran nuclear disputes or Israel conflicts. Consolidation could follow US State Department or Iranian official venue confirmation, with wide-open odds signaling high uncertainty ahead of potential June catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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