JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, has no publicly announced plans for a Middle East trip, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities amid his packed U.S. campaign schedule ahead of the November 5 election. Recent developments include Vance's domestic-focused rallies and Senate duties, with no official statements from the Trump campaign signaling foreign travel, despite ongoing regional tensions in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon that could prompt diplomatic engagement. Post-election scenarios hinge on November results—if Trump wins, a VP Vance might prioritize international outreach, but pre-inauguration windows remain narrow. Traders watch for campaign announcements or policy shifts, as historical VP nominees rarely venture abroad late in cycles without clear strategic need.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
Apr 30, 2026
3月31日
8%
4月10日
28%
$2,086 交易量
3月31日
$1,723 交易量
8%
4月10日
$362 交易量
28%
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ET
交易量
$2,086结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,086结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...JD Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee, has no publicly announced plans for a Middle East trip, anchoring trader consensus at low implied probabilities amid his packed U.S. campaign schedule ahead of the November 5 election. Recent developments include Vance's domestic-focused rallies and Senate duties, with no official statements from the Trump campaign signaling foreign travel, despite ongoing regional tensions in Israel, Gaza, and Lebanon that could prompt diplomatic engagement. Post-election scenarios hinge on November results—if Trump wins, a VP Vance might prioritize international outreach, but pre-inauguration windows remain narrow. Traders watch for campaign announcements or policy shifts, as historical VP nominees rarely venture abroad late in cycles without clear strategic need.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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