Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.5% implied probability, driven by Elon Musk's November 29, 2024, X post framing DOGE—the advisory Department of Government Efficiency—as "paying" TSA salaries, which was clearly hyperbolic rhetoric amid his government waste-cutting push rather than a literal pledge. DOGE lacks budgetary authority or funding mechanisms to cover the roughly 60,000 TSA employees' $4 billion-plus annual payroll, and Musk personally funding it would face insurmountable federal procurement laws, ethics rules, and congressional oversight. Realistic upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise executive order granting DOGE fiscal control or massive private donation, though both hinge on improbable regulatory shifts before typical market resolutions, reinforcing near-certain skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
$10,048 交易量
NEW
$10,048 交易量
Apr 14, 2026
NEW
$10,048 交易量
NEW
$10,048 交易量
Apr 14, 2026
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
交易量
$10,048结束日期
Apr 14, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees.
An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed.
Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify.
Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment.
Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$10,048结束日期
Apr 14, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 96.5% implied probability, driven by Elon Musk's November 29, 2024, X post framing DOGE—the advisory Department of Government Efficiency—as "paying" TSA salaries, which was clearly hyperbolic rhetoric amid his government waste-cutting push rather than a literal pledge. DOGE lacks budgetary authority or funding mechanisms to cover the roughly 60,000 TSA employees' $4 billion-plus annual payroll, and Musk personally funding it would face insurmountable federal procurement laws, ethics rules, and congressional oversight. Realistic upset scenarios remain slim: a surprise executive order granting DOGE fiscal control or massive private donation, though both hinge on improbable regulatory shifts before typical market resolutions, reinforcing near-certain skepticism.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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